A lot of investors have written off bonds after 2022. In this episode, Paddy Delaney explains why that conclusion is based on a misreading of how bonds work — and what the historical data actually shows.
The 10-year US Treasury yield went from under 6% to over 11% during the 1970s. Bonds still returned 5.4% per year. The worst single year was a loss of less than 1%. If bonds survived that rate environment, what does it mean for the environment we are in today?
In this episode:
- How bond returns are calculated (starting yield and duration)
- Why rising interest rates improve your future bond returns, not reduce them
- What the 1970s data shows, using Damodaran historical records
- What this means practically for anyone with bonds in an ARF or occupational pension
- A short note on lifestyling: being moved into bonds automatically is very different from choosing to hold them
This episode is relevant if you are approaching retirement, already in retirement, or reviewing an ARF or pension that includes a bond allocation.
If you would like to talk through your own situation, book a Clarity Call at www.informeddecisions.ie
Full blog post:
www.informeddecisions.ie/post/bonds-arf-retirement-ireland
• All Informed Decisions podcast episodes:
www.informeddecisions.ie/podcast/
ABOUT THE SHOW
The Informed Decisions podcast is hosted by Paddy Delaney QFA RPA APA — independent, fee-only retirement planner in Ireland. The podcast and the blog at informeddecisions.ie are educational resources for Irish professionals, business owners, and high-net-worth individuals navigating retirement, tax efficiency, and investment strategy.
Find Paddy at www.informeddecisions.ie
TIMESTAMPS
00:00 Introduction to Bonds and Market Perceptions
02:43 Understanding Bonds: Their Role and Functionality
05:20 The Impact of Interest Rates on Bond Investments
08:20 Predictability of Bond Returns and Historical Context
11:11 The Mechanics of Bond Funds and Their Advantages
14:01 Current Bond Market Landscape and Future Outlook
17:03 Strategic Considerations for Investors and Pension Holders
19:46 Common Misconceptions and Mistakes in Bond Investing
22:25 Key Takeaways and Final Thoughts
DISCLAIMER
This podcast is for general educational purposes only. It does not constitute personalised financial advice. Figures and rules referenced reflect the position as at May 2026 and are subject to change. Always speak to a qualified, independent financial advisor about your specific situation.